How do the bookstores figure in the publishing equation?
November 12 2009
What ultimately determines the publishing success of a book? There are many possible answers: the publisher has control of the quality of the writing, the editing, the design, the packaging of the book, the size of the printing, the marketing, the promotion and the publicity.
But in the end it’s the bookstores that now control the national publishing industry. Some 80% of general trade books from national publishers are sold via the big chains, like Barnes & Noble and Borders, the rest via independents, and increasingly the big box stores like Walmart, Target, Costco and Sam’s.
Bookstores buy books at a discount from the Publisher’s list price, between 45-50%. They buy on a consignment basis, and they have the right to return books that are not selling well. The average returns rate on the Mainland is about 30%. Publishers often don’t know for months whether books they have “sold” have actually sold.
The chains routinely discount the prices of bestsellers, and recently they started a price war, pricing the ten best-selling books at $8.99—down from $25-$30. Publishers are worried that this will become a trend, devaluing books as a whole, eroding what is already a very slim margin, and accelerating the sale of e-books. (E-books don’t require bookstores--but that’s another story.)
The Nielsen BookScan program
The bookstore chains have category buyers, and for most books they make their decisions in seconds, on the basis of their experience with the genre, the author, and the publisher. Since 2001 they have depended heavily on the Nielsen BookScan program, which tracks the sales of 75% of all books sold. BookScan requires a six-figure subscription, and is used by all major national publishers and distributors as well. BookScan is probably responsible for the fact that acquisition decisions are now basically decided by the marketing department—they have real data, editors have only hunches. Editors now have to use BookScan figures on the Author’s track record, and comparative titles to make their case.
BookScan tracks sales by the week, by region, by city, by suburb, by demographic. BookScan cannot predict specific sales, but it does reveal trends and useful correlations, and it reduces the odds of failure.
Authors Polarized
Undoubtedly BookScan fuels the polarization of “brand-name” authors versus the rest. Initial print runs for the giants are now often in the hundreds of thousands, rationalized by the success of the last book. “Mid-list” authors, often of considerable reputation, will fade away fast if one book sells fewer copies than the previous one. A house like Wiley has made a business of picking up prestigious authors and paying them small advances and net royalties—half what they first got at a major house.
I recall one absurd example of the BookScan Effect: I was an editor at Inner Ocean Publishing, a new national publisher based on Maui. I acquired a book by an author whose last book had sold 75,000 copies. But he had made the mistake of bringing back into print a book of poetry he had published 30 years before, for use in writing workshops. He had sold very few in bookstores—that wasn’t his objective. BookScan tracked both titles, and presented a radically downward trend, and the chains responded accordingly, with a minimal order. “If the customers want it, they’ll order it, and then we’ll buy more copies.” As a result the marketing plan for the book was immediately downsized. It’s a good book, but it sold slowly—and is still in print eight years later. It would have sold substantially more in its first year, if it had been in the bookstores.
Hawaii Bookstores
As far as I know, no publisher uses BookScan in Hawaii. They don’t need it. And probably half the books published in Hawaii are sold outside regular bookstores.
=========================
Writing and the Business of Writing Workshop
Best selling author, Pat Wood, will be holding a one-day writing workshop on Saturday, November 14, at the University of Hawaii Lab School Campus.
8:30-12:30: Writing workshop. Bring writing samples and Pat will work with students on pitch and synopsis, plus give sample critiques. The morning session will be geared toward writers of all genres of FICTION (literary, mystery, historical, YA, romance, supernatural, etc.) and those who write memoirs. $85
12:30-1:00 Brown bag lunch open to all attendees w/ discussion/Q&A
1:00-3:30: The business of writing. Lecture format talk about publishing and the business of publishing. Find out how to query; if you need an agent; when to have a manuscript; when a partial will do. Q&A to follow. $50
Take both sessions for $125 ($10 discount) plus an opportunity for individualized feedback on your revised piece (after the conference) from author Patricia Wood by email.
http://patriciawoodauthor.com
LOTTERY Putnam August 2007
Trade Paperback Berkley June 2008
A 2007 October Booksense Notable
Washington Post Book World List Best of 2007
Short listed for the 2008 Orange Broadband Prize for Fiction in the UK
Please contact Jacqui Pirl: 224-4008 or tropicalparadise@hawaii.rr.com for more information on the conference. Limited openings. Only 15 spots left.
Tags: Barnes & Noble, Borders, Lottery, Nielsen BookScan, Pat Wood, University of Hawaii Lab School Campus
November 12th, 2009 at 11:33 am
Really interesting, Roger. You write: Some 80% of general trade books from national publishers are sold via the big chains, like Barnes & Noble and Borders, the rest via independents, and increasingly the big box stores like Walmart, Target, Costco and Sam’s.
Where is amazon in all this?
November 13th, 2009 at 5:11 am
Last I heard Amazon.com accounts for about 10% of book sales. But It's a bit like counting minority percentages in Hawaii--they usually add up to well over 100%. Amazon.com recently reported it's best thee quarters ever, which is significant, given the recession, and the fact that most publishers are reporting downturns of as much as 10% for the year. Amazon.com doesn't break out it's sources of income, and it keeps it's Kindle sales (of the Kindle itself, and the e-books you get via Kindle) secret. I'll look out for more definitive numbers. It's fairly well established that the Kindle is Amazon's leading product at the moment, and presumably significant numbers of books are being sold via the Kindle.
--Roger
November 23rd, 2009 at 12:43 am
RJ wrote: “...probably half the books published in Hawaii are sold outside regular bookstores.” This guesstimate may be like an editorial hunch in need of real data from a tracking program—wonder if there’s a way to find out. My guess: a sizeable majority of local books are sold via bookstores, in the long run, though the percentage varies according to type of book. I say “long run” since Costco might throw things off during the 3-6 months they stock a title before returning to the publisher. In Hawaii (compared to other states) there seems to be more non-bookstore retailers that carry books—visitor shops, gift shops, Longs.... Roger, was that your line of thinking? I imagine Ben Cayetano’s memoir would sell mostly via bookstores but a cookbook or children’s book could be ubiquitous.